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Market

TAM of $3.4B across ~285K US product firms, every count independently verified against Census data. Our Year-2 target is 0.1% of our SAM.

  • TAM: $3.4B (~285,000 US manufacturer + merchant-wholesaler firms selling standardized, unit-priced products × $12K/yr)
  • SAM: $1.7B (~145,000 of those firms at $1M–$50M revenue — the band our price point fits)
  • Beachhead: $445M (37,084 food & beverage + CPG firms at $1M–$50M — where marketing focuses first)
  • SOM: $1.8M ARR exiting Year 2 (~150 customers, built bottom-up from our sales funnel; band $1.3M–$2.5M)
  • Year-5 revenue target: ~$12M on ~450 customers (projection, benchmarked top-quartile for a pre-seed raise)
  • 2 current customers already expanding globally — international demand is real
  • Breakeven at just ~13 customers

Questions investors ask

How did you arrive at the $3.4B TAM figure?
Bottom-up from government data. The 2022 Economic Census counts 240,644 US manufacturing firms and 234,594 merchant-wholesaler firms (excluding brokers/agents) — 475,238 companies. We serve only firms selling standardized, unit-priced, simple-SKU products — no custom or configure-to-order work — and apply a 60% filter for that, supported by make-to-stock share and e-commerce adoption data. That yields ~285,000 firms × $12K/yr recurring = $3.4B. The SAM of $1.7B narrows to ~145,000 firms at $1M–$50M revenue (SUSB 2022), where our ~$1K/mo price point fits. Every firm count was independently re-derived from the primary Census tables; the 60% filter is our one labeled estimate (at 50% the TAM is $2.9B). Full sourced methodology is in our market-sizing document.
Is the Year-5 $12M revenue target realistic?
It is a projection, benchmarked and stress-tested, not a forecast. The model reaches ~450 customers by Year 5 at ~$32K/yr blended revenue per customer as module, white-label, DTC, and payment-processing revenue stack on the $12K base. Per 2025 SaaS benchmark data, $10–15M Year-5 ARR is top-quartile for a pre-seed raise of this size — ambitious but within precedent. At half the expansion velocity the model still reaches ~$7M and stays profitable. Near-term, our Year-2 target of ~150 customers ($1.8M ARR) is built bottom-up from our sales calculator: rep call volume through a measured funnel, a rep hired every six months — cold calls only, with email and direct-mail channels as unpriced upside.
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